On a Common Statistical Fallacy

On the interpretation of diagnostic tests: a common logical fallacy.

5%). Recoveries were similar when samples were sonicated before or after addition of perchloric acid. The compounds were determined in seven 250ML portions of a pooled whole-blood sample; the within-day CVs were 4.3% for 5-HT and 2.1% for TRP. Determinations made on 20-ML samples of pooled wholeblood (prepared by adding 10 ML of ascorbic and perchloric acid) gave CVs of 9.7% for 5-HT and 6.8% f...

Information and the Market Economy: A Note on a Common Marxist Fallacy

M arxists have seldom been noted for much economic sophistication in their critique of the capitalist market economy. Marxist reasoning was essentially easy game for Mises ([I9201 1990) in his classic initiation of what came later to be called "the socialist calculation debate." However, later market socialist contributions to this debate were for a long time believed to have provided the defin...

The “banzhaf Fallacy” Fallacy

on some bayesian statistical models in actuarial science with emphasis on claim count

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Predicting Lotto Numbers A natural experiment on the gambler’s fallacy and the hot hand fallacy

We investigate the “law of small numbers” using a data set on lotto gambling that allows us to measure players’ reactions to draws. While most players pick the same set of numbers week after week, we find that those who do change, react on average as predicted by the law of small numbers as formalized in recent behavioral theory. In particular, players tend to bet less on numbers that were draw...